FKF Premier League · KenyaAFC Leopards vs GOR Mahia prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: AFC Leopards 1.0 – 1.1 GOR Mahia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
GOR Mahia shade it despite being away from home – 47% to win, against 40% for AFC Leopards.
AFC Leopards have taken 15 points from their last 6 matches (5W 0D 1L), scoring 1.7 and conceding 0.3 per game. GOR Mahia have 9 points from their last 6 (2W 3D 1L), averaging 1.2 scored and 0.5 conceded. AFC Leopards come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.1 goals (1.0 for AFC Leopards, 1.1 for GOR Mahia). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 64% likely and at least one clean sheet is the more likely outcome. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 0–1 (13%), 1–0 (12%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 83% chance.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | GOR Mahia to win ✓ | 47% | 2.13 | – |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 87% | 1.15 | – |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 58% | 1.72 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 63% | 1.59 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 64% | 1.57 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 83% | 1.20 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 48% | 2.08 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT GOR Mahia / FT GOR Mahia ✗ | 22% | 4.57 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✓ | 13% | 7.46 | – |
Form
AFC Leopards – last 6
| 5 Apr | @ Murang'a SEAL | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Mar | vs Kariobangi Sharks | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Mar | vs Tusker | 1–0 | W |
| 18 Mar | vs Nairobi United | 1–0 | W |
| 1 Mar | vs Shabana | 5–1 | W |
| 26 Feb | @ KCB | 0–1 | L |
GOR Mahia – last 6
| 19 Apr | vs Bandari | 0–0 | D |
| 14 Apr | @ Tusker | 0–1 | L |
| 4 Apr | vs Kariobangi Sharks | 0–0 | D |
| 15 Mar | @ Ulinzi Stars | 3–1 | W |
| 5 Mar | @ Posta Rangers FC | 1–1 | D |
| 22 Feb | vs KCB | 3–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AFC Leopards and GOR Mahia.
FKF Premier League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  GOR Mahia | 6 | +4 | 13 |
| 2 |  KCB | 6 | +4 | 13 |
| 3 |  AFC Leopards | 6 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 |  Kenya Police | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 5 |  Shabana | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 6 |  Mara Sugar | 6 | 0 | 9 |
| 7 |  3K | 6 | -1 | 9 |
| 8 |  Murang'a SEAL | 6 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 |  Bandari | 6 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 |  Posta Rangers FC | 6 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 |  Tusker | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 12 |  Migori Youth | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 13 |  APS Bomet | 6 | +1 | 6 |
| 14 |  Ulinzi Stars | 6 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 |  Nairobi United | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 |  Mathare United | 6 | -2 | 5 |
| 17 |  Homeboyz | 5 | -2 | 5 |
| 18 |  Mombasa Elite | 6 | -7 | 1 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for AFC Leopards vs GOR Mahia?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 83% chance.
Who will win AFC Leopards vs GOR Mahia?
On our numbers AFC Leopards have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 13% and GOR Mahia 47%.
How many goals will there be in AFC Leopards vs GOR Mahia?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 42% of the time on our projection.
When is AFC Leopards vs GOR Mahia?
AFC Leopards vs GOR Mahia (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 26 April 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.