FKF Premier League · Kenya
APS Bomet vs Sofapaka prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: APS Bomet 1.3 – 0.7 Sofapaka expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
APS Bomet hold the edge on home soil with a 58% chance of winning, against 31% for Sofapaka.
APS Bomet have taken 9 points from their last 6 matches (2W 3D 1L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 0.5 per game. Sofapaka have 2 points from their last 6 (0W 2D 4L), averaging 0.2 scored and 1.3 conceded. APS Bomet come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.0 goals (1.3 for APS Bomet, 0.7 for Sofapaka). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 68% likely and at least one clean sheet is the more likely outcome. Most likely scores: 1–0 (17%), 0–0 (14%), 1–1 (13%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 86% chance.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | APS Bomet to win ✓ | 58% | 1.72 | – |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 89% | 1.12 | – |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 59% | 1.69 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 59% | 1.68 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 68% | 1.48 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 86% | 1.17 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 49% | 2.03 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT APS Bomet / FT APS Bomet ✗ | 28% | 3.53 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✓ | 17% | 5.86 | – |
Form
APS Bomet – last 6
| 19 Apr | @ Posta Rangers FC | 3–0 | W |
| 4 Apr | @ Ulinzi Stars | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Mar | vs Nairobi United | 0–0 | D |
| 21 Mar | @ Mara Sugar | 0–0 | D |
| 14 Mar | vs Bidco United | 1–1 | D |
| 2 Mar | @ Homeboyz | 1–2 | L |
Sofapaka – last 6
| 3 Apr | vs Bandari | 0–0 | D |
| 29 Mar | @ Ulinzi Stars | 0–2 | L |
| 21 Mar | @ Bidco United | 0–0 | D |
| 14 Mar | vs Nairobi United | 0–1 | L |
| 2 Mar | @ Mara Sugar | 1–3 | L |
| 26 Feb | vs Police | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between APS Bomet and Sofapaka.
FKF Premier League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  GOR Mahia | 6 | +4 | 13 |
| 2 |  KCB | 6 | +4 | 13 |
| 3 |  AFC Leopards | 6 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 |  Kenya Police | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 5 |  Shabana | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 6 |  Mara Sugar | 6 | 0 | 9 |
| 7 |  3K | 6 | -1 | 9 |
| 8 |  Murang'a SEAL | 6 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 |  Bandari | 6 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 |  Posta Rangers FC | 6 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 |  Tusker | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 12 |  Migori Youth | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 13 |  APS Bomet | 6 | +1 | 6 |
| 14 |  Ulinzi Stars | 6 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 |  Nairobi United | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 |  Mathare United | 6 | -2 | 5 |
| 17 |  Homeboyz | 5 | -2 | 5 |
| 18 |  Mombasa Elite | 6 | -7 | 1 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for APS Bomet vs Sofapaka?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 86% chance.
Who will win APS Bomet vs Sofapaka?
On our numbers APS Bomet have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 11% and Sofapaka 31%.
How many goals will there be in APS Bomet vs Sofapaka?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 41% of the time on our projection.
When is APS Bomet vs Sofapaka?
APS Bomet vs Sofapaka (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 26 April 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.