FKF Premier League · KenyaTusker vs Mara Sugar prediction & analysis
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.47 · bookmaker 1.40 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Tusker 1.1 – 0.8 Mara Sugar expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Tusker hold the edge on home soil with a 45% chance of winning, against 31% for Mara Sugar.
Tusker have taken 12 points from their last 6 matches (4W 0D 2L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 0.5 per game. Mara Sugar have 9 points from their last 6 (2W 3D 1L), averaging 0.5 scored and 0.3 conceded.
We expect around 1.9 goals (1.1 for Tusker, 0.8 for Mara Sugar). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 68% likely and at least one clean sheet is the more likely outcome. Most likely scores: 1–0 (16%), 0–0 (15%), 1–1 (13%).
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals at a 68% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.40 is close to our fair price of 1.47.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Tusker to win ✗ | 45% | 2.24 | 2.20 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 76% | 1.32 | 1.36 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 60% | 1.66 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 57% | 1.74 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 68% | 1.47 | 1.40 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 87% | 1.15 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 51% | 1.97 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Tusker / FT Tusker ✗ | 23% | 4.34 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 16% | 6.31 | – |
Form
Tusker – last 6
| 14 Apr | vs GOR Mahia | 1–0 | W |
| 3 Apr | @ Police | 0–1 | L |
| 22 Mar | @ AFC Leopards | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Mar | vs Homeboyz | 2–0 | W |
| 2 Mar | @ Kariobangi Sharks | 2–1 | W |
| 25 Feb | vs Murang'a SEAL | 1–0 | W |
Mara Sugar – last 6
| 18 Apr | @ Kariobangi Sharks | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Apr | vs Posta Rangers FC | 1–0 | W |
| 1 Apr | @ Nairobi United | 1–1 | D |
| 28 Mar | @ KCB | 0–1 | L |
| 21 Mar | vs APS Bomet | 0–0 | D |
| 14 Mar | @ Bandari | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tusker and Mara Sugar.
FKF Premier League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  GOR Mahia | 6 | +4 | 13 |
| 2 |  KCB | 6 | +4 | 13 |
| 3 |  AFC Leopards | 6 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 |  Kenya Police | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 5 |  Shabana | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 6 |  Mara Sugar | 6 | 0 | 9 |
| 7 |  3K | 6 | -1 | 9 |
| 8 |  Murang'a SEAL | 6 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 |  Bandari | 6 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 |  Posta Rangers FC | 6 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 |  Tusker | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 12 |  Migori Youth | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 13 |  APS Bomet | 6 | +1 | 6 |
| 14 |  Ulinzi Stars | 6 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 |  Nairobi United | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 |  Mathare United | 6 | -2 | 5 |
| 17 |  Homeboyz | 5 | -2 | 5 |
| 18 |  Mombasa Elite | 6 | -7 | 1 |
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Bidco United1Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Tusker vs Mara Sugar?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Tusker vs Mara Sugar?
On our numbers Tusker have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Mara Sugar 31%.
How many goals will there be in Tusker vs Mara Sugar?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 40% of the time on our projection.
When is Tusker vs Mara Sugar?
Tusker vs Mara Sugar (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Friday 24 April 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.