Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗61% · fair 1.65
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗72% · fair 1.39
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.16
Sofapaka vs Mathare United preview and prediction
The match
The FKF Premier League sees Sofapaka take on Mathare United on Saturday 2 May, kicking off at 13:00 (WAT).
Form guide
Sofapaka's last 5: LDLDL Most recently they lost to APS Bomet 0–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.2 per game.
Mathare United's last 5: DLDLD Most recently they drew with Police 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.4 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 1.0 for Sofapaka and 0.8 for Mathare United. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 72% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sofapaka 50%, draw 11%, Mathare United 39%.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 88% chance. Predicted score: Sofapaka 1–0 Mathare United. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sofapaka50%fair 2.00
Draw11%fair 9.09
Mathare United39%fair 2.56
1.84Expected goals
1.02Sofapaka xG
0.82Mathare United xG
39%Both score
28%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
0–016%
1–113%
0–113%
2–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: Sofapaka 1.0 – 0.8 Mathare United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sofapaka to win✗
50%
2.00
–
Double chance
Either team to win✗
89%
1.12
–
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
55%
1.82
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
72%
1.39
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
88%
1.13
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
52%
1.92
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✓
24%
4.21
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.16
–
Form
Sofapaka – last 6
LDLDLL
26 Apr
@ APS Bomet
0–1
L
3 Apr
vs Bandari
0–0
D
29 Mar
@ Ulinzi Stars
0–2
L
21 Mar
@ Bidco United
0–0
D
14 Mar
vs Nairobi United
0–1
L
2 Mar
@ Mara Sugar
1–3
L
0.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Mathare United – last 5
DLDLD
14 Apr
vs Police
0–0
D
4 Apr
@ Homeboyz
0–3
L
22 Mar
@ Murang'a SEAL
1–1
D
25 Feb
vs Shabana
0–1
L
21 Feb
@ Kariobangi Sharks
1–1
D
0.4Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
40%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sofapaka and Mathare United.
What is the prediction for Sofapaka vs Mathare United?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 88% chance.
Who will win Sofapaka vs Mathare United?
On our numbers Sofapaka have a 50% chance of winning, the draw 11% and Mathare United 39%.
How many goals will there be in Sofapaka vs Mathare United?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 28% likely and both teams score 39% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sofapaka vs Mathare United?
Our predicted score is Sofapaka 1–0 Mathare United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Sofapaka vs Mathare United?
Sofapaka vs Mathare United (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 2 May 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
