FKF Premier League · Kenya · Green StadiumMara Sugar vs Posta Rangers FC prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Mara Sugar 1.1 – 0.9 Posta Rangers FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Mara Sugar hold the edge on home soil with a 47% chance of winning, against 40% for Posta Rangers FC.
Mara Sugar have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (1W 4D 1L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 0.8 per game. Posta Rangers FC have 7 points from their last 6 (2W 1D 3L), averaging 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded.
We expect around 2.0 goals (1.1 for Mara Sugar, 0.9 for Posta Rangers FC). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 68% likely and at least one clean sheet is the more likely outcome. Most likely scores: 1–0 (15%), 0–0 (14%), 1–1 (13%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 86% chance.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Mara Sugar to win ✓ | 47% | 2.13 | – |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 87% | 1.15 | – |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 58% | 1.71 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 59% | 1.70 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 68% | 1.47 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 86% | 1.16 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 50% | 1.99 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Draw / FT Draw ✗ | 22% | 4.54 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✓ | 15% | 6.85 | – |
Form
Mara Sugar – last 6
| 1 Apr | @ Nairobi United | 1–1 | D |
| 28 Mar | @ KCB | 0–1 | L |
| 21 Mar | vs APS Bomet | 0–0 | D |
| 14 Mar | @ Bandari | 0–0 | D |
| 2 Mar | vs Sofapaka | 3–1 | W |
| 26 Feb | @ Bidco United | 2–2 | D |
Posta Rangers FC – last 6
| 28 Mar | vs Homeboyz | 0–2 | L |
| 22 Mar | @ Kariobangi Sharks | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Mar | vs Police | 2–0 | W |
| 5 Mar | vs GOR Mahia | 1–1 | D |
| 1 Mar | @ Murang'a SEAL | 0–1 | L |
| 21 Feb | @ AFC Leopards | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mara Sugar and Posta Rangers FC.
FKF Premier League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  GOR Mahia | 6 | +4 | 13 |
| 2 |  KCB | 6 | +4 | 13 |
| 3 |  AFC Leopards | 6 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 |  Kenya Police | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 5 |  Shabana | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 6 |  Mara Sugar | 6 | 0 | 9 |
| 7 |  3K | 6 | -1 | 9 |
| 8 |  Murang'a SEAL | 6 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 |  Bandari | 6 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 |  Posta Rangers FC | 6 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 |  Tusker | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 12 |  Migori Youth | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 13 |  APS Bomet | 6 | +1 | 6 |
| 14 |  Ulinzi Stars | 6 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 |  Nairobi United | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 |  Mathare United | 6 | -2 | 5 |
| 17 |  Homeboyz | 5 | -2 | 5 |
| 18 |  Mombasa Elite | 6 | -7 | 1 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Mara Sugar vs Posta Rangers FC?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 86% chance.
Who will win Mara Sugar vs Posta Rangers FC?
On our numbers Mara Sugar have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 13% and Posta Rangers FC 40%.
How many goals will there be in Mara Sugar vs Posta Rangers FC?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 42% of the time on our projection.
When is Mara Sugar vs Posta Rangers FC?
Mara Sugar vs Posta Rangers FC (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Monday 6 April 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time) at Green Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.