FKF Premier League · Kenya · Moi International Sports Centre
Mathare United vs Police prediction & analysis
Not both teams to score
Fair pick · fair odds 1.87 · bookmaker 1.60 · Won ✓
Value bet: Police to win @ 2.20 – our chance 49% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Mathare United 0.6 – 1.1 Police expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Police shade it despite being away from home – 49% to win, against 26% for Mathare United.
Mathare United have taken 2 points from their last 4 matches (0W 2D 2L), scoring 0.5 and conceding 1.5 per game. Police have 11 points from their last 6 (3W 2D 1L), averaging 1.0 scored and 0.5 conceded. Police come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 1.7 goals (0.6 for Mathare United, 1.1 for Police). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 75% likely. Most likely scores: 0–1 (19%), 0–0 (18%), 1–1 (12%).
Our pick is Not both teams to score at a 53% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.60 is close to our fair price of 1.87. For a bigger price, Police to win at 2.20 is our value angle (49% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Police to win ✗ | 49% | 2.05 | 2.20 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 75% | 1.34 | 1.40 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 53% | 1.87 | 1.60 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 51% | 1.96 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 75% | 1.33 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 91% | 1.10 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 54% | 1.86 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Draw / FT Draw ✓ | 25% | 3.96 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 19% | 5.21 | – |
Form
Mathare United – last 4
| 4 Apr | @ Homeboyz | 0–3 | L |
| 22 Mar | @ Murang'a SEAL | 1–1 | D |
| 25 Feb | vs Shabana | 0–1 | L |
| 21 Feb | @ Kariobangi Sharks | 1–1 | D |
Police – last 6
| 3 Apr | vs Tusker | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Mar | @ Posta Rangers FC | 0–2 | L |
| 1 Mar | vs Bandari | 2–0 | W |
| 26 Feb | @ Sofapaka | 2–0 | W |
| 22 Feb | vs APS Bomet | 0–0 | D |
| 15 Feb | @ Ulinzi Stars | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mathare United and Police.
FKF Premier League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  GOR Mahia | 6 | +4 | 13 |
| 2 |  KCB | 6 | +4 | 13 |
| 3 |  AFC Leopards | 6 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 |  Kenya Police | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 5 |  Shabana | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 6 |  Mara Sugar | 6 | 0 | 9 |
| 7 |  3K | 6 | -1 | 9 |
| 8 |  Murang'a SEAL | 6 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 |  Bandari | 6 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 |  Posta Rangers FC | 6 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 |  Tusker | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 12 |  Migori Youth | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 13 |  APS Bomet | 6 | +1 | 6 |
| 14 |  Ulinzi Stars | 6 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 |  Nairobi United | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 |  Mathare United | 6 | -2 | 5 |
| 17 |  Homeboyz | 5 | -2 | 5 |
| 18 |  Mombasa Elite | 6 | -7 | 1 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Mathare United vs Police?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.60.
Who will win Mathare United vs Police?
On our numbers Mathare United have a 26% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Police 49%.
How many goals will there be in Mathare United vs Police?
We expect about 1.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 25% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
When is Mathare United vs Police?
Mathare United vs Police (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Tuesday 14 April 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time) at Moi International Sports Centre.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.