Liga MX Femenil · Mexico · Estadio Banorte
América W
Toluca W
América W vs Toluca W prediction & analysis
Over 2.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.32 · bookmaker 1.28
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.73 – our chance 63% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: América W 2.8 – 1.3 Toluca W expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
América W are clear favourites at home with a 68% chance of winning, against 15% for Toluca W.
América W have taken 15 points from their last 6 matches (5W 0D 1L), scoring 4.3 and conceding 1.0 per game. Toluca W have 11 points from their last 6 (3W 2D 1L), averaging 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded. América W come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 4.2 goals (2.8 for América W, 1.3 for Toluca W). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 2–1 (8%), 3–1 (8%), 2–0 (6%).
In their last 2 meetings, América W have won 2, Toluca W have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 5.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals at a 76% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.28 is close to our fair price of 1.32. For a bigger price, Both teams to score at 1.73 is our value angle (63% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | América W to win | 68% | 1.48 | 1.20 |
| Double chance | América W or draw | 85% | 1.18 | 1.04 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score | 63% | 1.58 | 1.73 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals | 90% | 1.11 | 1.07 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals | 76% | 1.32 | 1.28 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Over 3.5 goals | 58% | 1.73 | 1.67 |
| Half-time result | América W ahead at half-time | 52% | 1.91 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT América W / FT América W | 46% | 2.16 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 | 8% | 12.07 | – |
Form
América W – last 6
| 7 Nov | @ Guadalajara W | 3–1 | W |
| 1 Nov | vs Atlante W | 6–0 | W |
| 25 Oct | @ Atlético San Luis W | 7–0 | W |
| 19 Oct | vs Pachuca W | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Oct | @ Monterrey W | 3–4 | L |
| 29 Sep | @ León W | 5–0 | W |
Toluca W – last 6
| 6 Nov | @ Querétaro W | 1–1 | D |
| 31 Oct | vs Guadalajara W | 2–3 | L |
| 25 Oct | @ Cruz Azul W | 2–1 | W |
| 20 Oct | vs Santos Laguna W | 0–0 | D |
| 5 Oct | @ Pachuca W | 2–1 | W |
| 29 Sep | @ Necaxa W | 4–0 | W |
Head to head
| 8 May 2026 | Toluca W v América W | 1–7 |
| 17 Mar 2026 | América W v Toluca W | 2–0 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for América W vs Toluca W?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win América W vs Toluca W?
On our numbers América W have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Toluca W 15%.
How many goals will there be in América W vs Toluca W?
We expect about 4.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
When is América W vs Toluca W?
América W vs Toluca W (Liga MX Femenil) kicks off on Thursday 12 November 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Banorte.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.