Segunda División · Uruguay
La Luz
Fenix
La Luz vs Fenix prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.37
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: La Luz 1.2 – 1.1 Fenix expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates La Luz and Fenix on our numbers – 39% for the home side, 35% for the visitors and 26% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
La Luz have taken 13 points from their last 6 matches (4W 1D 1L), scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.0 per game. Fenix have 5 points from their last 6 (1W 2D 3L), averaging 0.8 scored and 1.5 conceded. La Luz come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.3 goals (1.2 for La Luz, 1.1 for Fenix). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 56%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 1–0 (12%), 0–1 (11%).
In their last 1 meeting, La Luz have won 0, Fenix have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 0.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 66% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.37 is close to our fair price of 1.51.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | La Luz to win | 39% | 2.56 | 2.65 |
| Double chance | Either team to win | 74% | 1.34 | 1.30 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score | 56% | 1.78 | 1.88 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals | 66% | 1.51 | 1.37 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals | 59% | 1.69 | 1.56 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals | 79% | 1.27 | 1.16 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time | 46% | 2.15 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT La Luz / FT La Luz | 21% | 4.68 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 | 12% | 8.33 | – |
Form
La Luz – last 6
| 31 Oct | @ Rentistas | 0–2 | L |
| 25 Oct | vs Miramar | 3–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | @ Tacuarembo | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Plaza Colonia | 1–1 | D |
| 4 Oct | vs CA River Plate | 3–2 | W |
| 27 Sep | @ Cerrito | 2–1 | W |
Fenix – last 6
| 31 Oct | vs Cerrito | 1–1 | D |
| 25 Oct | @ Atenas | 0–4 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Paysandu | 0–1 | L |
| 11 Oct | @ Sportivo Huracan | 0–0 | D |
| 4 Oct | vs Uruguay Montevideo | 2–0 | W |
| 26 Sep | @ Oriental | 2–3 | L |
Head to head
| 8 Aug 2026 | Fenix v La Luz | 0–0 |
More Segunda División predictions
Tacuarembo
Miramar
O1.5Over 1.5 goals
65%@1.37
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for La Luz vs Fenix?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.37.
Who will win La Luz vs Fenix?
On our numbers La Luz have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Fenix 35%.
How many goals will there be in La Luz vs Fenix?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
When is La Luz vs Fenix?
La Luz vs Fenix (Segunda División) kicks off on Wednesday 11 November 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.