Copa Colombia · Colombia · Estadio Palogrande
Once Caldas
Atletico Nacional
Once Caldas vs Atletico Nacional prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.34 · bookmaker 1.22
Value bet: Atletico Nacional to win @ 2.50 – our chance 44% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Once Caldas 1.1 – 1.4 Atletico Nacional expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Atletico Nacional shade it despite being away from home – 44% to win, against 33% for Once Caldas.
Once Caldas have taken 14 points from their last 6 matches (4W 2D 0L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 0.3 per game. Atletico Nacional have 13 points from their last 6 (4W 1D 1L), averaging 2.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
We expect around 2.5 goals (1.1 for Once Caldas, 1.4 for Atletico Nacional). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 59%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 0–1 (11%), 1–0 (9%).
In their last 1 meeting, Once Caldas have won 1, Atletico Nacional have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 1.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 74% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is close to our fair price of 1.34. For a bigger price, Atletico Nacional to win at 2.50 is our value angle (44% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Atletico Nacional to win | 44% | 2.25 | 2.50 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win | 77% | 1.30 | 1.34 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score | 59% | 1.69 | 1.79 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals | 71% | 1.41 | 1.30 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals | 54% | 1.85 | 1.69 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals | 74% | 1.34 | 1.22 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time | 44% | 2.30 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Atletico Nacional / FT Atletico Nacional | 25% | 4.00 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 | 11% | 9.15 | – |
Form
Once Caldas – last 6
| 7 Nov | vs Águilas Doradas | 1–0 | W |
| 2 Nov | @ Santa Fe | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Oct | vs Alianza Valledupar | 1–0 | W |
| 25 Oct | vs Deportivo Pereira | 1–1 | D |
| 21 Oct | @ Millonarios | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Oct | @ Independiente Medellin | 2–0 | W |
Atletico Nacional – last 6
| 8 Nov | vs Deportivo Pereira | 4–3 | W |
| 3 Nov | @ Bucaramanga | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Oct | vs Santa Fe | 2–0 | W |
| 26 Oct | vs Independiente Medellin | 2–1 | W |
| 23 Oct | vs Deportivo Pasto | 3–0 | W |
| 21 Oct | @ Cucuta | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
| 2 May 2026 | Once Caldas v Atletico Nacional | 1–0 |
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Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Once Caldas vs Atletico Nacional?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Once Caldas vs Atletico Nacional?
On our numbers Once Caldas have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Atletico Nacional 44%.
How many goals will there be in Once Caldas vs Atletico Nacional?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
When is Once Caldas vs Atletico Nacional?
Once Caldas vs Atletico Nacional (Copa Colombia) kicks off on Wednesday 11 November 2026 at 02:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Palogrande.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.