Copa Santa Catarina · Brazil

Marcílio Dias

DDDDW
1–0
FT

Figueirense

LWDWW

Marcílio Dias vs Figueirense prediction & analysis

74%
Footrivo pick

Over 1.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.36 · bookmaker 1.29 · Lost ✗

8/10Rating
1.29Odds

Quick tips for this match

ResultFigueirense to win ✗38% · @2.43
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.31
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.74
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗74% · @1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗9% · fair 11.71

Win chances

Marcílio Dias36%fair 2.74 · @2.82
Draw26%fair 3.88 · @2.82
Figueirense38%fair 2.65 · @2.43
2.81Expected goals
1.39Marcílio Dias xG
1.42Figueirense xG
57%Both score
49%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–112%
0–19%
1–28%
1–08%
2–18%
0–26%

From our goals model: Marcílio Dias 1.4 – 1.4 Figueirense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

Very little separates Marcílio Dias and Figueirense on our numbers – 36% for the home side, 38% for the visitors and 26% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.

Marcílio Dias have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (1W 4D 1L), scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.5 per game. Figueirense have 13 points from their last 6 (4W 1D 1L), averaging 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded. Figueirense come into this in clearly the better form.

We expect around 2.8 goals (1.4 for Marcílio Dias, 1.4 for Figueirense). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 57%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 0–1 (9%), 1–2 (8%).

In their last 2 meetings, Marcílio Dias have won 1, Figueirense have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 74% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.29 is close to our fair price of 1.36.

Every market, with fair odds

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultFigueirense to win ✗38%2.652.43
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74%1.351.31
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗57%1.751.74
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✗74%1.361.29
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓51%1.971.68
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓71%1.401.23
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓41%2.42–
Half-time / full-timeHT Figueirense / FT Figueirense ✗22%4.51–
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗9%11.71–

Form

Marcílio Dias – last 6

DDDDWL
1 Novvs Barra2–2D
16 Octvs Figueirense2–2D
9 Oct@ Nação0–0D
26 Sep@ Blumenau1–1D
19 Sepvs Hercílio Luz4–2W
13 Sep@ Santa Catarina1–2L
1.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Figueirense – last 6

LWDWWW
1 Nov@ Blumenau2–3L
24 Octvs Joinville1–0W
16 Oct@ Marcílio Dias2–2D
10 Octvs Hercílio Luz1–0W
27 Sep@ Metropolitano1–0W
20 Sep@ Santa Catarina2–1W
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

16 Oct 2026Marcílio Dias v Figueirense2–2
21 Feb 2026Figueirense v Marcílio Dias0–1

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Marcílio Dias vs Figueirense?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.29.

Who will win Marcílio Dias vs Figueirense?

On our numbers Marcílio Dias have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Figueirense 38%.

How many goals will there be in Marcílio Dias vs Figueirense?

We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.

When is Marcílio Dias vs Figueirense?

Marcílio Dias vs Figueirense (Copa Santa Catarina) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time).

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.