Copa Santa Catarina · Brazil
Joinville
Hercílio Luz
Joinville vs Hercílio Luz prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.35 · bookmaker 1.30 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.79 – our chance 61% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Joinville 1.5 – 1.4 Hercílio Luz expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Joinville and Hercílio Luz on our numbers – 39% for the home side, 38% for the visitors and 23% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Joinville have taken 12 points from their last 6 matches (4W 0D 2L), scoring 2.2 and conceding 0.8 per game. Hercílio Luz have 10 points from their last 6 (3W 1D 2L), averaging 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded.
We expect around 2.9 goals (1.5 for Joinville, 1.4 for Hercílio Luz). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 61%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 2–1 (8%), 1–2 (8%).
In their last 1 meeting, Joinville have won 0, Hercílio Luz have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 4.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 74% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.30 is close to our fair price of 1.35. For a bigger price, Both teams to score at 1.79 is our value angle (61% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Joinville to win ✗ | 39% | 2.55 | 2.28 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 77% | 1.30 | 1.22 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 61% | 1.64 | 1.79 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 74% | 1.35 | 1.30 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 50% | 1.99 | 2.01 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 71% | 1.41 | 1.21 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 41% | 2.46 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Joinville / FT Joinville ✗ | 22% | 4.47 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 8% | 11.81 | – |
Form
Joinville – last 6
| 1 Nov | vs Metropolitano | 3–0 | W |
| 24 Oct | @ Figueirense | 0–1 | L |
| 10 Oct | @ Santa Catarina | 3–0 | W |
| 26 Sep | vs Barra | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | @ Nação | 4–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Hercílio Luz | 1–3 | L |
Hercílio Luz – last 6
| 1 Nov | @ Santa Catarina | 3–2 | W |
| 24 Oct | vs Blumenau | 0–0 | D |
| 17 Oct | vs Barra | 2–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | @ Figueirense | 0–1 | L |
| 26 Sep | vs Nação | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | @ Marcílio Dias | 2–4 | L |
Head to head
| 12 Sep 2026 | Joinville v Hercílio Luz | 1–3 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Joinville vs Hercílio Luz?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Joinville vs Hercílio Luz?
On our numbers Joinville have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Hercílio Luz 38%.
How many goals will there be in Joinville vs Hercílio Luz?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
When is Joinville vs Hercílio Luz?
Joinville vs Hercílio Luz (Copa Santa Catarina) kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.