Premier League · Malta
Marsaxlokk
Hamrun Spartans
Marsaxlokk vs Hamrun Spartans prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.33 · bookmaker 1.23 · Won ✓
Value bet: Marsaxlokk to win @ 2.98 – our chance 37% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Marsaxlokk 1.4 – 1.4 Hamrun Spartans expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Marsaxlokk and Hamrun Spartans on our numbers – 37% for the home side, 40% for the visitors and 23% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Marsaxlokk have taken 9 points from their last 6 matches (3W 0D 3L), scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.5 per game. Hamrun Spartans have 10 points from their last 6 (2W 4D 0L), averaging 2.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
We expect around 2.8 goals (1.4 for Marsaxlokk, 1.4 for Hamrun Spartans). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 61%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 0–1 (9%), 1–2 (9%).
In their last 2 meetings, Marsaxlokk have won 0, Hamrun Spartans have won 2 and 0 ended level, with an average of 3.5 goals per game.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 75% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.23 is close to our fair price of 1.33. For a bigger price, Marsaxlokk to win at 2.98 is our value angle (37% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Hamrun Spartans to win ✗ | 40% | 2.50 | 2.10 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 77% | 1.30 | 1.24 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 61% | 1.64 | 1.65 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 75% | 1.33 | 1.23 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 52% | 1.92 | 1.81 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 69% | 1.45 | 1.30 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 41% | 2.43 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Hamrun Spartans / FT Hamrun Spartans ✗ | 23% | 4.39 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 9% | 11.68 | – |
Form
Marsaxlokk – last 6
| 1 Nov | @ Gzira United | 5–0 | W |
| 24 Oct | @ Sliema Wanderers | 1–2 | L |
| 21 Oct | @ Birzebbuga | 0–2 | L |
| 16 Oct | vs Birkirkara | 2–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Zabbar St. Patrick | 2–1 | W |
| 18 Sep | @ Hamrun Spartans | 1–4 | L |
Hamrun Spartans – last 6
| 31 Oct | @ Sliema Wanderers | 1–1 | D |
| 25 Oct | @ Valletta FC | 2–1 | W |
| 21 Oct | vs Balzan FC | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Oct | @ Gzira United | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Oct | vs Hibernians | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Sep | vs Marsaxlokk | 4–1 | W |
Head to head
| 18 Sep 2026 | Hamrun Spartans v Marsaxlokk | 4–1 |
| 23 Feb 2026 | Hamrun Spartans v Marsaxlokk | 2–0 |
More Premier League predictions
Birkirkara1
Zabbar St. Patrick1
O1.5Over 1.5 goals
73%@1.25
✓
FT
Sliema Wanderers2
Valletta FC0
O1.5Over 1.5 goals
69%@1.38
✓
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Marsaxlokk vs Hamrun Spartans?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.23.
Who will win Marsaxlokk vs Hamrun Spartans?
On our numbers Marsaxlokk have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Hamrun Spartans 40%.
How many goals will there be in Marsaxlokk vs Hamrun Spartans?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
When is Marsaxlokk vs Hamrun Spartans?
Marsaxlokk vs Hamrun Spartans (Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.