Torneo Federal A · Argentina

Sarmiento de La Banda

LWDDL
1–0
FT

Alvarado

LWDLW

Sarmiento de La Banda vs Alvarado prediction & analysis

67%
Footrivo pick

Under 2.5 goals

Good pick · fair odds 1.50 · bookmaker 1.37 · Won ✓

6/10Rating
1.37Odds
2

Value bet: Alvarado to win @ 3.12 – our chance 35% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Quick tips for this match

ResultSarmiento de La Banda to win ✓39% · @2.27
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.32
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.56
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · @1.09
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓14% · fair 7.15

Win chances

Sarmiento de La Banda39%fair 2.54 · @2.27
Draw26%fair 3.84 · @2.76
Alvarado35%fair 2.89 · @3.12
2.02Expected goals
1.06Sarmiento de La Banda xG
0.97Alvarado xG
49%Both score
33%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–014%
1–114%
0–013%
0–113%
2–07%
2–17%

From our goals model: Sarmiento de La Banda 1.1 – 1.0 Alvarado expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

Very little separates Sarmiento de La Banda and Alvarado on our numbers – 39% for the home side, 35% for the visitors and 26% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.

Sarmiento de La Banda have taken 5 points from their last 6 matches (1W 2D 3L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.7 per game. Alvarado have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded.

We expect around 2.0 goals (1.1 for Sarmiento de La Banda, 1.0 for Alvarado). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 67% likely. Most likely scores: 1–0 (14%), 1–1 (14%), 0–0 (13%).

Our pick is Under 2.5 goals at a 67% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.37 is close to our fair price of 1.50. For a bigger price, Alvarado to win at 3.12 is our value angle (35% on our numbers).

Every market, with fair odds

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultSarmiento de La Banda to win ✓39%2.542.27
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74%1.351.32
Both teams to scoreNot both teams to score ✓51%1.971.56
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✗59%1.691.56
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓67%1.501.37
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84%1.191.09
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓50%2.02–
Half-time / full-timeHT Draw / FT Draw ✗22%4.64–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓14%7.15–

Form

Sarmiento de La Banda – last 6

LWDDLL
1 Nov@ Atenas2–4L
25 Octvs Atenas3–0W
18 Octvs Sportivo Belgrano0–0D
11 Oct@ Sportivo Belgrano1–1D
20 Sepvs Defensores de Belgrano VR0–2L
13 Sep@ San Martin Formosa0–3L
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Alvarado – last 6

LWDLWD
1 Novvs Sportivo Las Parejas1–2L
25 Oct@ Sportivo Las Parejas1–0W
18 Octvs Cipolletti0–0D
11 Oct@ Cipolletti0–1L
4 Octvs Defensores de Belgrano VR2–0W
27 Sep@ Defensores de Belgrano VR2–2D
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Sarmiento de La Banda and Alvarado.

More Torneo Federal A predictions

FT Douglas Haig1 Gimnasia Chivilcoy0 622513 1Douglas Haig to win 62%@1.85 ✓ FT Juventud Antoniana0 Cipolletti1 362638 U2.5Under 2.5 goals 67%@1.40 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Sarmiento de La Banda vs Alvarado?

Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.37.

Who will win Sarmiento de La Banda vs Alvarado?

On our numbers Sarmiento de La Banda have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Alvarado 35%.

How many goals will there be in Sarmiento de La Banda vs Alvarado?

We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 33% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.

When is Sarmiento de La Banda vs Alvarado?

Sarmiento de La Banda vs Alvarado (Torneo Federal A) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.