FAI Cup · Ireland · Aviva Stadium

Derry City

DWWLW
1–0
FT

Waterford

WWWLW

Derry City vs Waterford prediction & analysis

78%
Footrivo pick

Over 1.5 goals

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗

9/10Rating
1.22Odds
2

Value bet: Waterford to win @ 3.20 – our chance 34% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Quick tips for this match

ResultDerry City to win ✓46% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗64% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.00

Win chances

Derry City46%fair 2.19 · @2.00
Draw21%fair 4.85 · @3.40
Waterford34%fair 2.97 · @3.20
3.01Expected goals
1.64Derry City xG
1.37Waterford xG
64%Both score
57%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–111%
2–19%
1–08%
1–28%
0–17%
2–07%

From our goals model: Derry City 1.6 – 1.4 Waterford expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

Derry City hold the edge on home soil with a 46% chance of winning, against 34% for Waterford.

Derry City have taken 13 points from their last 6 matches (4W 1D 1L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 0.8 per game. Waterford have 12 points from their last 6 (4W 0D 2L), averaging 2.3 scored and 1.7 conceded.

We expect around 3.0 goals (1.6 for Derry City, 1.4 for Waterford). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11%), 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (8%).

In their last 3 meetings, Derry City have won 1, Waterford have won 1 and 1 ended level, with an average of 5.3 goals per game.

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 78% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is close to our fair price of 1.27. For a bigger price, Waterford to win at 3.20 is our value angle (34% on our numbers).

Every market, with fair odds

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultDerry City to win ✓46%2.192.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79%1.261.25
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗64%1.571.62
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✗78%1.271.22
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✗57%1.771.70
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓64%1.551.44
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓39%2.53–
Half-time / full-timeHT Derry City / FT Derry City ✗26%3.79–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9%11.00–

Form

Derry City – last 6

DWWLWW
30 Oct@ Sligo Rovers2–2D
23 Octvs Dundalk2–1W
19 Octvs St Patrick's Athl.1–0W
16 Oct@ Drogheda United0–2L
10 Oct@ Galway United2–0W
18 Sepvs Galway United1–0W
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Waterford – last 6

WWWLWL
30 Oct@ Shelbourne3–2W
23 Octvs Drogheda United3–1W
19 Octvs Galway United3–2W
16 Oct@ Bohemians1–2L
9 Oct@ Bohemians2–0W
18 Sep@ Shamrock Rovers2–3L
2.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5

Head to head

14 Sep 2026Waterford v Derry City2–2
3 Jul 2026Derry City v Waterford2–4
27 Feb 2026Derry City v Waterford4–2

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Derry City vs Waterford?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.

Who will win Derry City vs Waterford?

On our numbers Derry City have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Waterford 34%.

How many goals will there be in Derry City vs Waterford?

We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.

When is Derry City vs Waterford?

Derry City vs Waterford (FAI Cup) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Aviva Stadium.

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.