Australian Championship · Australia · Lakeside Stadium

South Melbourne

WDWDW
0–0
FTPens 6–5

Sutherland Sharks

LWLDL

South Melbourne vs Sutherland Sharks prediction & analysis

68%
Footrivo pick

Under 3.5 goals

Good pick · fair odds 1.48 · bookmaker 1.53 · Won ✓

7/10Rating
1.53Odds

Quick tips for this match

ResultSouth Melbourne to win ✗64% · @1.45
Double chanceSouth Melbourne or draw ✓83% · @1.11
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗76% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.15

Win chances

South Melbourne64%fair 1.57 · @1.45
Draw19%fair 5.19 · @4.20
Sutherland Sharks17%fair 5.88 · @5.25
2.55Expected goals
1.79South Melbourne xG
0.76Sutherland Sharks xG
53%Both score
53%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–014%
2–013%
1–111%
2–110%
0–08%
3–07%

From our goals model: South Melbourne 1.8 – 0.8 Sutherland Sharks expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

South Melbourne are clear favourites at home with a 64% chance of winning, against 17% for Sutherland Sharks.

South Melbourne have taken 11 points from their last 6 matches (3W 2D 1L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 0.7 per game. Sutherland Sharks have 7 points from their last 6 (2W 1D 3L), averaging 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded. South Melbourne come into this in clearly the better form.

We expect around 2.6 goals (1.8 for South Melbourne, 0.8 for Sutherland Sharks). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 53%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (14%), 2–0 (13%), 1–1 (11%).

In their last 1 meeting, South Melbourne have won 1, Sutherland Sharks have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 1.0 goals per game.

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 68% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.53 is better than our fair price of 1.48, so there is value in it.

Every market, with fair odds

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultSouth Melbourne to win ✗64%1.571.45
Double chanceSouth Melbourne or draw ✓83%1.211.11
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗53%1.881.80
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✗76%1.321.17
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✗53%1.871.57
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓68%1.481.53
Half-time resultSouth Melbourne ahead at half-time ✗44%2.29–
Half-time / full-timeHT South Melbourne / FT South Melbourne ✗39%2.57–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14%7.15–

Form

South Melbourne – last 6

WDWDWL
29 Oct@ Canberra FC2–0W
23 Octvs Sydney United1–1D
17 Oct@ Sutherland Sharks1–0W
10 Octvs Melbourne Victory0–0D
15 Sepvs Lions3–1W
11 Sep@ Oakleigh Cannons1–2L
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Sutherland Sharks – last 6

LWLDLW
31 Octvs Sydney United1–2L
24 Oct@ Canberra FC2–0W
17 Octvs South Melbourne0–1L
2 Sepvs Manly United1–1D
30 Augvs SD Raiders1–2L
22 Augvs St George City FA2–1W
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

17 Oct 2026Sutherland Sharks v South Melbourne0–1

More Australian Championship predictions

FT Marconi Stallions1 Bayswater City4 621424 1Marconi Stallions to win 62%@1.75 ✗ FT Wollongong Wolves1 Preston Lions2 202357 X2Preston Lions or draw 80%@1.25 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for South Melbourne vs Sutherland Sharks?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.

Who will win South Melbourne vs Sutherland Sharks?

On our numbers South Melbourne have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Sutherland Sharks 17%.

How many goals will there be in South Melbourne vs Sutherland Sharks?

We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.

When is South Melbourne vs Sutherland Sharks?

South Melbourne vs Sutherland Sharks (Australian Championship) kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 09:30 (West Africa Time) at Lakeside Stadium.

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.