National League National · New-Zealand
Ferrymead Bays
Wellington Phoenix II
Ferrymead Bays vs Wellington Phoenix II prediction & analysis
Ferrymead Bays to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.53 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Ferrymead Bays 2.4 – 1.1 Wellington Phoenix II expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Ferrymead Bays are clear favourites at home with a 65% chance of winning, against 14% for Wellington Phoenix II.
Ferrymead Bays have taken 4 points from their last 6 matches (1W 1D 4L), scoring 0.5 and conceding 1.8 per game. Wellington Phoenix II have 4 points from their last 5 (1W 1D 3L), averaging 1.0 scored and 3.4 conceded.
We expect around 3.4 goals (2.4 for Ferrymead Bays, 1.1 for Wellington Phoenix II). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–1 (10%), 2–0 (9%), 1–1 (8%).
Our pick is Ferrymead Bays to win at a 65% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.53 is close to our fair price of 1.54.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Ferrymead Bays to win ✓ | 65% | 1.54 | 1.53 |
| Double chance | Ferrymead Bays or draw ✓ | 86% | 1.16 | 1.12 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 64% | 1.56 | 1.37 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 86% | 1.17 | 1.06 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 69% | 1.46 | 1.29 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 52% | 1.93 | 1.87 |
| Half-time result | Ferrymead Bays ahead at half-time ✓ | 49% | 2.02 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Ferrymead Bays / FT Ferrymead Bays ✓ | 44% | 2.28 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 10% | 10.39 | – |
Form
Ferrymead Bays – last 6
| 1 Nov | @ Birkenhead United | 0–2 | L |
| 23 Oct | vs Cashmere Technical | 0–2 | L |
| 18 Oct | @ Auckland United | 0–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Miramar | 1–4 | L |
| 3 Oct | @ Wellington Olympic | 2–1 | W |
| 26 Sep | vs Eastern Suburbs | 0–0 | D |
Wellington Phoenix II – last 5
| 31 Oct | vs Auckland FC 2 | 3–2 | W |
| 25 Oct | @ Napier City Rovers | 1–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Birkenhead United | 0–1 | L |
| 4 Oct | @ Cashmere Technical | 0–10 | L |
| 26 Sep | vs Auckland United | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ferrymead Bays and Wellington Phoenix II.
More National League National predictions
Wellington Olympic4
Auckland United2
GGBoth teams to score
69%@1.34
✓
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Ferrymead Bays vs Wellington Phoenix II?
Our pick is Ferrymead Bays to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Ferrymead Bays vs Wellington Phoenix II?
On our numbers Ferrymead Bays have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Wellington Phoenix II 14%.
How many goals will there be in Ferrymead Bays vs Wellington Phoenix II?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
When is Ferrymead Bays vs Wellington Phoenix II?
Ferrymead Bays vs Wellington Phoenix II (National League National) kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 04:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.