Copa Do Brasil · Brazil · MRV Arena

Atletico-MG

LLLLL
1–1
FT

Gremio

LWWWL

Atletico-MG vs Gremio prediction & analysis

74%
Footrivo pick

Under 3.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.34 · bookmaker 1.33 · Won ✓

8/10Rating
1.33Odds

Quick tips for this match

ResultAtletico-MG to win ✗63% · @1.57
Double chanceEither team to win ✗82% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.55

Win chances

Atletico-MG63%fair 1.58 · @1.57
Draw18%fair 5.52 · @4.00
Gremio18%fair 5.41 · @5.25
2.40Expected goals
1.68Atletico-MG xG
0.72Gremio xG
47%Both score
47%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–015%
2–013%
1–111%
2–19%
0–09%
3–07%

From our goals model: Atletico-MG 1.7 – 0.7 Gremio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

Atletico-MG are clear favourites at home with a 63% chance of winning, against 18% for Gremio.

Atletico-MG have taken 3 points from their last 6 matches (1W 0D 5L), scoring 0.5 and conceding 1.5 per game. Gremio have 10 points from their last 6 (3W 1D 2L), averaging 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded. Gremio come into this in clearly the better form.

We expect around 2.4 goals (1.7 for Atletico-MG, 0.7 for Gremio). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 47%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (15%), 2–0 (13%), 1–1 (11%).

In their last 3 meetings, Atletico-MG have won 1, Gremio have won 2 and 0 ended level, with an average of 2.7 goals per game.

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 74% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.33 is close to our fair price of 1.34.

Every market, with fair odds

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultAtletico-MG to win ✗63%1.581.57
Double chanceEither team to win ✗82%1.221.22
Both teams to scoreNot both teams to score ✗53%1.881.91
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓72%1.391.25
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓53%1.891.95
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74%1.341.33
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓43%2.30–
Half-time / full-timeHT Atletico-MG / FT Atletico-MG ✗37%2.67–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15%6.55–

Form

Atletico-MG – last 6

LLLLLW
5 Nov@ Botafogo0–1L
1 Nov@ Gremio0–2L
29 Octvs Cruzeiro0–1L
27 Oct@ Flamengo2–3L
21 Oct@ Atletico Torque0–2L
17 Octvs Coritiba1–0W
0.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5

Gremio – last 6

LWWWLD
4 Nov@ Flamengo1–3L
1 Novvs Atletico-MG2–0W
30 Octvs Atletico Paranaense2–0W
26 Oct@ Coritiba1–0W
18 Octvs Cruzeiro2–4L
11 Octvs Internacional1–1D
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Head to head

1 Nov 2026Gremio v Atletico-MG2–0
16 Aug 2026Atletico-MG v Gremio3–0
26 Feb 2026Gremio v Atletico-MG2–1

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Atletico-MG vs Gremio?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.

Who will win Atletico-MG vs Gremio?

On our numbers Atletico-MG have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Gremio 18%.

How many goals will there be in Atletico-MG vs Gremio?

We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.

When is Atletico-MG vs Gremio?

Atletico-MG vs Gremio (Copa Do Brasil) kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time) at MRV Arena.

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.