Copa Do Brasil · Brazil
Vasco DA Gama
Palmeiras
Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.32 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
Value bet: Palmeiras to win @ 2.70 – our chance 41% vs 37% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Vasco DA Gama 1.2 – 1.3 Palmeiras expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Vasco DA Gama and Palmeiras on our numbers – 34% for the home side, 41% for the visitors and 24% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Vasco DA Gama have taken 6 points from their last 6 matches (2W 0D 4L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 2.0 per game. Palmeiras have 13 points from their last 6 (4W 1D 1L), averaging 1.8 scored and 0.3 conceded. Palmeiras come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.4 goals (1.2 for Vasco DA Gama, 1.3 for Palmeiras). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 56%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 0–1 (11%), 1–0 (10%).
In their last 3 meetings, Vasco DA Gama have won 1, Palmeiras have won 2 and 0 ended level, with an average of 3.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 76% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is close to our fair price of 1.32. For a bigger price, Palmeiras to win at 2.70 is our value angle (41% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Palmeiras to win ✗ | 41% | 2.42 | 2.70 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 76% | 1.32 | 1.33 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 56% | 1.79 | 1.80 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 69% | 1.44 | 1.36 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 55% | 1.80 | 1.70 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 76% | 1.32 | 1.25 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 45% | 2.24 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Palmeiras / FT Palmeiras ✗ | 23% | 4.35 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 11% | 8.92 | – |
Form
Vasco DA Gama – last 6
| 4 Nov | @ Atletico Paranaense | 3–1 | W |
| 1 Nov | @ Palmeiras | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Oct | vs Flamengo | 1–4 | L |
| 24 Oct | vs Corinthians | 3–2 | W |
| 21 Oct | vs Boca Juniors | 1–3 | L |
| 18 Oct | @ Sao Paulo | 0–1 | L |
Palmeiras – last 6
| 5 Nov | vs Remo | 6–1 | W |
| 1 Nov | vs Vasco DA Gama | 1–0 | W |
| 28 Oct | @ Santos | 0–0 | D |
| 24 Oct | vs RB Bragantino | 2–0 | W |
| 22 Oct | vs Fluminense | 0–1 | L |
| 17 Oct | @ Atletico Paranaense | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
| 1 Nov 2026 | Palmeiras v Vasco DA Gama | 1–0 |
| 23 Aug 2026 | Palmeiras v Vasco DA Gama | 4–1 |
| 12 Mar 2026 | Vasco DA Gama v Palmeiras | 2–1 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras?
On our numbers Vasco DA Gama have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Palmeiras 41%.
How many goals will there be in Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
When is Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras?
Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras (Copa Do Brasil) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.