Wales U19 vs Finland U19 prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.46 · bookmaker 1.38
Value bet: Finland U19 to win @ 3.04 – our chance 40% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Wales U19 1.3 – 1.4 Finland U19 expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Wales U19 and Finland U19 on our numbers – 38% for the home side, 40% for the visitors and 22% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Wales U19 have taken 1 points from their last 6 matches (0W 1D 5L), scoring 0.0 and conceding 3.0 per game. Finland U19 have 3 points from their last 3 (1W 0D 2L), averaging 0.7 scored and 1.7 conceded. Finland U19 come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.7 goals (1.3 for Wales U19, 1.4 for Finland U19). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 60%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 0–1 (9%), 1–0 (9%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 69% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.38 is close to our fair price of 1.46. For a bigger price, Finland U19 to win at 3.04 is our value angle (40% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Finland U19 to win | 40% | 2.52 | 3.04 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win | 78% | 1.29 | 1.27 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score | 60% | 1.65 | 1.57 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals | 76% | 1.32 | 1.18 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 1.90 | 1.70 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals | 69% | 1.46 | 1.38 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time | 42% | 2.36 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Finland U19 / FT Finland U19 | 22% | 4.53 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 | 9% | 10.79 | – |
Form
Wales U19 – last 6
| 5 Oct | vs Northern Ireland U19 | 0–0 | D |
| 2 Oct | vs Norway U19 | 0–2 | L |
| 29 Sep | @ USA U19 | 0–2 | L |
| 4 Jul | @ Denmark U19 | 0–3 | L |
| 1 Jul | vs Germany U19 | 0–4 | L |
| 28 Jun | vs Spain U19 | 0–7 | L |
Finland U19 – last 3
| 30 Sep | vs Germany U19 | 1–2 | L |
| 31 Mar | @ Slovenia U19 | 1–0 | W |
| 25 Mar | vs Netherlands U19 | 0–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Wales U19 and Finland U19.
UEFA U19 Championship Qualification table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Spain U19 | 3 | +11 | 9 |
| 2 |  Netherlands U19 | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 3 |  Finland U19 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 4 |  Slovenia U19 | 3 | -6 | 0 |
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Northern Ireland U19Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Wales U19 vs Finland U19?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.38.
Who will win Wales U19 vs Finland U19?
On our numbers Wales U19 have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Finland U19 40%.
How many goals will there be in Wales U19 vs Finland U19?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
When is Wales U19 vs Finland U19?
Wales U19 vs Finland U19 (UEFA U19 Championship Qualification) kicks off on Wednesday 11 November 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Rodney Parade.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.