Iraqi League · Iraq · Franso Hariri Stadium
Erbil
Gharraf
Erbil vs Gharraf prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.29 · bookmaker 1.23 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Erbil 1.7 – 0.5 Gharraf expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Erbil are clear favourites at home with a 68% chance of winning, against 13% for Gharraf.
Erbil have taken 5 points from their last 6 matches (1W 2D 3L), scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.7 per game. Gharraf have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 0.8 scored and 1.2 conceded.
We expect around 2.2 goals (1.7 for Erbil, 0.5 for Gharraf). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 49%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (19%), 2–0 (16%), 0–0 (11%).
In their last 1 meeting, Erbil have won 0, Gharraf have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 0.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 78% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.23 is close to our fair price of 1.29.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Erbil to win ✗ | 68% | 1.46 | 1.53 |
| Double chance | Erbil or draw ✓ | 87% | 1.15 | 1.06 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✗ | 51% | 1.94 | 1.72 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 68% | 1.48 | 1.28 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 58% | 1.74 | 1.72 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 78% | 1.29 | 1.23 |
| Half-time result | Erbil ahead at half-time ✓ | 45% | 2.22 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Erbil / FT Erbil ✗ | 42% | 2.41 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 19% | 5.39 | – |
Form
Erbil – last 6
| 4 Nov | vs Kazma | 6–0 | W |
| 31 Oct | vs Ghaz Al Shamal | 1–1 | D |
| 22 Oct | @ Zakho | 1–2 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Mosul | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Oct | @ Ajman | 4–5 | L |
| 8 Oct | @ Naft Maysan | 1–1 | D |
Gharraf – last 6
| 31 Oct | @ Al Karkh | 2–1 | W |
| 22 Oct | vs Naft | 0–0 | D |
| 16 Oct | @ Karbala | 2–1 | W |
| 9 Oct | vs Al-Jolan SC | 0–0 | D |
| 17 Sep | @ Al Zawra'a | 0–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | @ Diyala | 1–3 | L |
Head to head
| 5 Apr 2026 | Gharraf v Erbil | 0–0 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Erbil vs Gharraf?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.23.
Who will win Erbil vs Gharraf?
On our numbers Erbil have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Gharraf 13%.
How many goals will there be in Erbil vs Gharraf?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
When is Erbil vs Gharraf?
Erbil vs Gharraf (Iraqi League) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Franso Hariri Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.