Premier League 2 Division One · England · Heritage Park
Middlesbrough U21
Derby County U21
Middlesbrough U21 vs Derby County U21 prediction & analysis
Over 2.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.32 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Middlesbrough U21 to win @ 1.78 – our chance 61% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Middlesbrough U21 2.6 – 1.6 Derby County U21 expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Middlesbrough U21 are clear favourites at home with a 61% chance of winning, against 24% for Derby County U21.
Middlesbrough U21 have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (2W 1D 3L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 2.3 per game. Derby County U21 have 5 points from their last 6 (1W 2D 3L), averaging 2.2 scored and 2.2 conceded.
We expect around 4.2 goals (2.6 for Middlesbrough U21, 1.6 for Derby County U21). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 75% likely and both teams score 70% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 2–1 (8%), 3–1 (7%), 2–2 (6%).
In their last 1 meeting, Middlesbrough U21 have won 0, Derby County U21 have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 1.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals at a 75% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is close to our fair price of 1.32. For a bigger price, Middlesbrough U21 to win at 1.78 is our value angle (61% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Middlesbrough U21 to win ✗ | 61% | 1.65 | 1.78 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 84% | 1.19 | 1.14 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 70% | 1.42 | 1.28 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 90% | 1.11 | 1.03 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 75% | 1.32 | 1.25 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Over 3.5 goals ✗ | 56% | 1.77 | 1.73 |
| Half-time result | Middlesbrough U21 ahead at half-time ✗ | 46% | 2.17 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Middlesbrough U21 / FT Middlesbrough U21 ✗ | 39% | 2.57 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 8% | 12.21 | – |
Form
Middlesbrough U21 – last 6
| 3 Nov | vs Valencia U21 | 3–2 | W |
| 25 Oct | vs Tottenham Hotspur U21 | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Oct | @ Boreham Wood | 1–7 | L |
| 16 Oct | @ Everton U21 | 1–2 | L |
| 30 Sep | vs Juventus U21 | 1–0 | W |
| 23 Sep | vs Genk U21 | 1–1 | D |
Derby County U21 – last 6
| 3 Nov | @ Wealdstone | 2–2 | D |
| 2 Nov | @ Hull City U21 | 0–1 | L |
| 26 Oct | vs Norwich City U21 | 3–4 | L |
| 19 Oct | @ Birmingham City U21 | 4–0 | W |
| 13 Oct | @ Scunthorpe | 2–2 | D |
| 10 Oct | @ Brentford U21 | 2–4 | L |
Head to head
| 20 Mar 2026 | Derby County U21 v Middlesbrough U21 | 1–0 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Middlesbrough U21 vs Derby County U21?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Middlesbrough U21 vs Derby County U21?
On our numbers Middlesbrough U21 have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Derby County U21 24%.
How many goals will there be in Middlesbrough U21 vs Derby County U21?
We expect about 4.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 75% likely and both teams score 70% of the time on our projection.
When is Middlesbrough U21 vs Derby County U21?
Middlesbrough U21 vs Derby County U21 (Premier League 2 Division One) kicks off on Monday 9 November 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Heritage Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.