Tercera División RFEF Group 12 · Spain
Mensajero
Marino
Mensajero vs Marino prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.37 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓
Value bet: Mensajero to win @ 1.84 – our chance 58% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Mensajero 1.8 – 1.0 Marino expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Mensajero hold the edge on home soil with a 58% chance of winning, against 19% for Marino.
Mensajero have taken 6 points from their last 6 matches (1W 3D 2L), scoring 1.5 and conceding 2.5 per game. Marino have 10 points from their last 6 (3W 1D 2L), averaging 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded. Marino come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.8 goals (1.8 for Mensajero, 1.0 for Marino). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 54%. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 1–0 (11%), 1–1 (11%), 2–0 (10%).
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 73% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.30 is close to our fair price of 1.37. For a bigger price, Mensajero to win at 1.84 is our value angle (58% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Mensajero to win ✗ | 58% | 1.72 | 1.84 ▲ |
| Double chance | Mensajero or draw ✓ | 81% | 1.23 | 1.17 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 54% | 1.87 | 1.82 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 73% | 1.37 | 1.30 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 50% | 1.99 | 1.71 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 71% | 1.41 | 1.24 |
| Half-time result | Mensajero ahead at half-time ✗ | 42% | 2.37 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Mensajero / FT Mensajero ✗ | 36% | 2.75 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 11% | 8.88 | – |
Form
Mensajero – last 6
| 31 Oct | @ Los Llanos | 1–3 | L |
| 25 Oct | vs UD San Fernando | 2–2 | D |
| 21 Oct | @ Panadería Pulido | 0–5 | L |
| 17 Oct | @ Las Palmas III | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Oct | vs San Bartolomé | 2–2 | D |
| 3 Oct | @ Villaverde Norte | 2–1 | W |
Marino – last 6
| 1 Nov | vs Villa Santa Brígida | 1–1 | D |
| 25 Oct | @ Lanzarote | 0–1 | L |
| 21 Oct | @ Los Llanos | 2–1 | W |
| 18 Oct | vs Estrella | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | @ Unión Sur Yaiza | 1–2 | L |
| 4 Oct | vs Playas Sotavento | 6–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mensajero and Marino.
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Mensajero vs Marino?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Mensajero vs Marino?
On our numbers Mensajero have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Marino 19%.
How many goals will there be in Mensajero vs Marino?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
When is Mensajero vs Marino?
Mensajero vs Marino (Tercera División RFEF Group 12) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.