A League · Australia · Go Media Stadium
Auckland
Wellington Phoenix
Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Wellington Phoenix to win @ 3.10 – our chance 37% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Auckland 1.6 – 1.5 Wellington Phoenix expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Auckland and Wellington Phoenix on our numbers – 40% for the home side, 37% for the visitors and 23% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Auckland have taken 4 points from their last 6 matches (1W 1D 4L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 2.2 per game. Wellington Phoenix have 12 points from their last 6 (4W 0D 2L), averaging 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded. Wellington Phoenix come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.2 goals (1.6 for Auckland, 1.5 for Wellington Phoenix). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11%), 2–1 (9%), 1–2 (8%).
In their last 1 meeting, Auckland have won 1, Wellington Phoenix have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 5.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 79% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is close to our fair price of 1.26. For a bigger price, Wellington Phoenix to win at 3.10 is our value angle (37% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Auckland to win ✗ | 40% | 2.50 | 2.20 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 77% | 1.29 | 1.28 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 60% | 1.66 | 1.67 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 79% | 1.26 | 1.22 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 57% | 1.75 | 1.75 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 64% | 1.57 | 1.40 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 38% | 2.60 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Auckland / FT Auckland ✗ | 24% | 4.24 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 9% | 11.71 | – |
Form
Auckland – last 6
| 30 Oct | @ Brisbane Roar | 1–1 | D |
| 24 Oct | @ Western Sydney Wanderers | 2–5 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Melbourne City | 3–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Western Sydney Wanderers | 1–3 | L |
| 26 Aug | @ Al-Ahli Jeddah | 0–1 | L |
| 26 Jul | vs Tottenham | 0–2 | L |
Wellington Phoenix – last 6
| 31 Oct | @ Newcastle Jets | 3–0 | W |
| 25 Oct | vs Central Coast Mariners | 2–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | vs Melbourne Victory | 2–1 | W |
| 24 Apr | @ Macarthur | 0–4 | L |
| 18 Apr | vs Western Sydney Wanderers | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Apr | @ Melbourne City | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
| 21 Feb 2026 | Wellington Phoenix v Auckland | 0–5 |
More A League predictions
Melbourne City2
Western Sydney Wanderers1
O1.5Over 1.5 goals
76%@1.22
✓
FT
Perth Glory2
Newcastle Jets1
GGBoth teams to score
68%@1.44
✓
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix?
On our numbers Auckland have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Wellington Phoenix 37%.
How many goals will there be in Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
When is Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix?
Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix (A League) kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 05:00 (West Africa Time) at Go Media Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.