Segunda División · Spain · Estadio Municipal de Butarque
Leganes
Burgos
Leganes vs Burgos prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.33 · bookmaker 1.20
Value bet: Burgos to win @ 3.36 – our chance 37% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +26%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Leganes 1.3 – 1.3 Burgos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Leganes and Burgos on our numbers – 38% for the home side, 37% for the visitors and 24% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Leganes have taken 1 points from their last 6 matches (0W 1D 5L), scoring 0.8 and conceding 2.7 per game. Burgos have 13 points from their last 6 (4W 1D 1L), averaging 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded. Burgos come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.5 goals (1.3 for Leganes, 1.3 for Burgos). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 57%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 1–0 (10%), 0–1 (10%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 75% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is close to our fair price of 1.33. For a bigger price, Burgos to win at 3.36 is our value angle (37% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Leganes to win | 38% | 2.61 | 2.15 |
| Double chance | Either team to win | 76% | 1.32 | 1.32 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score | 57% | 1.76 | 1.83 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals | 70% | 1.42 | 1.31 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals | 55% | 1.83 | 1.69 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals | 75% | 1.33 | 1.20 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time | 44% | 2.28 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Leganes / FT Leganes | 21% | 4.71 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 | 10% | 9.80 | – |
Form
Leganes – last 6
| 7 Nov | vs Albacete | 1–3 | L |
| 2 Nov | @ Valladolid | 3–4 | L |
| 24 Oct | vs Mallorca | 1–1 | D |
| 16 Oct | vs Cordoba | 0–1 | L |
| 11 Oct | @ Almeria | 0–3 | L |
| 3 Oct | @ Cadiz | 0–4 | L |
Burgos – last 6
| 7 Nov | vs Celta de Vigo II | 2–1 | W |
| 1 Nov | vs Castellón | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Oct | @ Laredo | 4–2 | W |
| 26 Oct | @ FC Andorra | 3–2 | W |
| 18 Oct | vs Sabadell | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Oct | vs Granada CF | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leganes and Burgos.
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Leganes vs Burgos?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Leganes vs Burgos?
On our numbers Leganes have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Burgos 37%.
How many goals will there be in Leganes vs Burgos?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
When is Leganes vs Burgos?
Leganes vs Burgos (Segunda División) kicks off on Friday 13 November 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal de Butarque.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.