III Liga Group 4 · Poland
Busko-Zdroj
Jarosław
Busko-Zdroj vs Jarosław prediction & analysis
Jarosław to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.64 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Busko-Zdroj 1.2 – 2.4 Jarosław expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Jarosław travel as clear favourites – 65% to win, against 20% for Busko-Zdroj.
Busko-Zdroj have taken 3 points from their last 6 matches (1W 0D 5L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 3.0 per game. Jarosław have 2 points from their last 6 (0W 2D 4L), averaging 1.2 scored and 2.2 conceded.
We expect around 3.6 goals (1.2 for Busko-Zdroj, 2.4 for Jarosław). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 68% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 1–2 (9%), 1–1 (8%), 0–2 (8%).
Our pick is Jarosław to win at a 65% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.64 is better than our fair price of 1.53, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Jarosław to win ✗ | 65% | 1.53 | 1.64 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 85% | 1.17 | 1.15 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 68% | 1.47 | 1.39 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 88% | 1.14 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 68% | 1.47 | 1.36 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 52% | 1.91 | 1.72 |
| Half-time result | Jarosław ahead at half-time ✗ | 48% | 2.10 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Jarosław / FT Jarosław ✗ | 42% | 2.40 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–2 ✗ | 9% | 10.61 | – |
Form
Busko-Zdroj – last 6
| 31 Oct | vs Chełmianka Chełm | 0–3 | L |
| 24 Oct | @ Czarni Połaniec | 1–2 | L |
| 18 Oct | vs Hetman Zamosc | 2–4 | L |
| 10 Oct | @ KSZO 1929 | 0–5 | L |
| 4 Oct | vs Wisła Kraków II | 3–0 | W |
| 26 Sep | @ Naprzód | 1–4 | L |
Jarosław – last 6
| 31 Oct | vs Czarni Połaniec | 2–2 | D |
| 25 Oct | @ Hetman Zamosc | 0–1 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs KSZO 1929 | 1–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | @ Wisła Kraków II | 1–2 | L |
| 3 Oct | vs Naprzód | 1–3 | L |
| 27 Sep | @ Moravia Morawica | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Busko-Zdroj and Jarosław.
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Busko-Zdroj vs Jarosław?
Our pick is Jarosław to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.64.
Who will win Busko-Zdroj vs Jarosław?
On our numbers Busko-Zdroj have a 20% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Jarosław 65%.
How many goals will there be in Busko-Zdroj vs Jarosław?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 68% of the time on our projection.
When is Busko-Zdroj vs Jarosław?
Busko-Zdroj vs Jarosław (III Liga Group 4) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.