Loko Vltavín vs Aritma Praha prediction & analysis

Very little separates Loko Vltavín and Aritma Praha on our numbers – 40% for the home side, 38% for the visitors and 23% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.

Loko Vltavín have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (3W 1D 2L), scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.5 per game. Aritma Praha have 6 points from their last 6 (1W 3D 2L), averaging 0.7 scored and 0.8 conceded. Loko Vltavín come into this in clearly the better form.

We expect around 1.9 goals (1.0 for Loko Vltavín, 0.9 for Aritma Praha). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 60% likely and at least one clean sheet is the more likely outcome. Most likely scores: 0–0 (14%), 1–0 (14%), 0–1 (14%).

In their last 1 meeting, Loko Vltavín have won 0, Aritma Praha have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 4.0 goals per game.

Our pick is Under 2.5 goals at a 60% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.75 is better than our fair price of 1.66, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Aritma Praha to win at 3.20 is our value angle (38% on our numbers).