Bundesliga · Austria · Merkur-Arena
Sturm Graz
Red Bull Salzburg
Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.48 · bookmaker 1.40 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Sturm Graz 1.5 – 1.7 Red Bull Salzburg expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Red Bull Salzburg shade it despite being away from home – 46% to win, against 35% for Sturm Graz.
Sturm Graz have taken 8 points from their last 6 matches (2W 2D 2L), scoring 2.3 and conceding 1.7 per game. Red Bull Salzburg have 13 points from their last 6 (4W 1D 1L), averaging 2.7 scored and 1.3 conceded. Red Bull Salzburg come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.2 goals (1.5 for Sturm Graz, 1.7 for Red Bull Salzburg). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 68% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10%), 1–2 (9%), 2–1 (8%).
In their last 2 meetings, Sturm Graz have won 0, Red Bull Salzburg have won 1 and 1 ended level, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 68% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.40 is close to our fair price of 1.48.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Red Bull Salzburg to win ✓ | 46% | 2.16 | 2.25 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 81% | 1.24 | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 68% | 1.48 | 1.40 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 84% | 1.20 | 1.12 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 64% | 1.57 | 1.44 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 57% | 1.76 | 1.73 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 38% | 2.63 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Red Bull Salzburg / FT Red Bull Salzburg ✗ | 27% | 3.74 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–2 ✗ | 9% | 11.13 | – |
Form
Sturm Graz – last 6
| 5 Nov | vs Celje | 2–3 | L |
| 1 Nov | @ Wolfsberger AC | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Oct | @ Austria Lustenau | 2–3 | L |
| 25 Oct | vs Ried | 2–2 | D |
| 22 Oct | vs Marseille | 1–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | vs Grazer AK | 6–1 | W |
Red Bull Salzburg – last 6
| 5 Nov | @ Anderlecht | 0–2 | L |
| 1 Nov | vs Austria Lustenau | 5–1 | W |
| 28 Oct | @ Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz | 3–2 | W |
| 25 Oct | @ Lask Linz | 3–1 | W |
| 22 Oct | @ Celje | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Oct | vs SCR Altach | 3–0 | W |
Head to head
| 20 Sep 2026 | Red Bull Salzburg v Sturm Graz | 3–0 |
| 20 Mar 2026 | Sturm Graz v Red Bull Salzburg | 1–1 |
More Bundesliga predictions
TSV Hartberg3
SCR Altach0
O1.5Over 1.5 goals
78%@1.22
✓
FT
WSG Wattens1
Austria Vienna1
O1.5Over 1.5 goals
77%@1.22
✓
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
On our numbers Sturm Graz have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Red Bull Salzburg 46%.
How many goals will there be in Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 68% of the time on our projection.
When is Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg (Bundesliga) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Merkur-Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.