Cup · Russia
Tekstilshchik vs Arsenal Tula prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.36 · bookmaker 1.24 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Arsenal Tula to win @ 2.30 – our chance 49% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Tekstilshchik 1.1 – 1.5 Arsenal Tula expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Arsenal Tula shade it despite being away from home – 49% to win, against 30% for Tekstilshchik.
Tekstilshchik have taken 4 points from their last 6 matches (1W 1D 4L), scoring 0.5 and conceding 1.7 per game. Arsenal Tula have 6 points from their last 6 (1W 3D 2L), averaging 1.0 scored and 1.7 conceded.
We expect around 2.6 goals (1.1 for Tekstilshchik, 1.5 for Arsenal Tula). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 59%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 0–1 (11%), 1–2 (9%).
In their last 1 meeting, Tekstilshchik have won 0, Arsenal Tula have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 3.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 73% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.24 is close to our fair price of 1.36. For a bigger price, Arsenal Tula to win at 2.30 is our value angle (49% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Arsenal Tula to win ✗ | 49% | 2.04 | 2.30 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 79% | 1.27 | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 59% | 1.69 | 1.69 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 73% | 1.36 | 1.24 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 51% | 1.97 | 1.82 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 72% | 1.38 | 1.26 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 42% | 2.35 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Arsenal Tula / FT Arsenal Tula ✗ | 28% | 3.59 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 11% | 9.20 | – |
Form
Tekstilshchik – last 6
| 4 Sep | vs Torpedo Moskva | 1–4 | L |
| 29 Aug | vs Veles | 0–1 | L |
| 22 Aug | @ Ural | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Aug | @ KAMAZ | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Aug | vs Nizhny Novgorod | 1–3 | L |
| 8 Aug | @ Enisey | 0–0 | D |
Arsenal Tula – last 6
| 5 Sep | @ Volga Ulyanovsk | 0–3 | L |
| 29 Aug | vs Ural | 2–2 | D |
| 24 Aug | @ Veles | 0–2 | L |
| 20 Aug | vs Rotor Volgograd | 2–1 | W |
| 15 Aug | @ Leningradets | 0–0 | D |
| 8 Aug | @ Shinnik Yaroslavl | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
| 13 Jul 2026 | Arsenal Tula v Tekstilshchik | 2–1 |
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Spartak Kostroma2Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Tekstilshchik vs Arsenal Tula?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.24.
Who will win Tekstilshchik vs Arsenal Tula?
On our numbers Tekstilshchik have a 30% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Arsenal Tula 49%.
How many goals will there be in Tekstilshchik vs Arsenal Tula?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
When is Tekstilshchik vs Arsenal Tula?
Tekstilshchik vs Arsenal Tula (Cup) kicks off on Tuesday 8 September 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.