First League · Bulgaria · Stadion Spartak
Spartak Varna
Arda Kardzhali
Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.33 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Spartak Varna to win @ 3.75 – our chance 32% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Spartak Varna 1.1 – 1.4 Arda Kardzhali expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Arda Kardzhali shade it despite being away from home – 46% to win, against 32% for Spartak Varna.
Spartak Varna have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (2W 1D 3L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.8 per game. Arda Kardzhali have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 1.0 scored and 1.8 conceded.
We expect around 2.6 goals (1.1 for Spartak Varna, 1.4 for Arda Kardzhali). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 55%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 0–1 (11%), 1–2 (9%).
In their last 1 meeting, Spartak Varna have won 0, Arda Kardzhali have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 1.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 75% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is close to our fair price of 1.33. For a bigger price, Spartak Varna to win at 3.75 is our value angle (32% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Arda Kardzhali to win ✗ | 46% | 2.18 | 2.05 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 78% | 1.28 | 1.33 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 55% | 1.82 | 1.91 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 71% | 1.41 | 1.36 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 55% | 1.83 | 1.65 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 75% | 1.33 | 1.22 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 43% | 2.32 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Arda Kardzhali / FT Arda Kardzhali ✗ | 26% | 3.86 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 11% | 9.17 | – |
Form
Spartak Varna – last 6
| 30 Oct | @ CSKA 1948 | 1–6 | L |
| 24 Oct | @ Dunav Ruse | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Oct | @ Etar Veliko Tarnovo | 4–2 | W |
| 10 Oct | @ Botev Vratsa | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs Lokomotiv Sofia | 0–1 | L |
| 13 Sep | @ Slavia Sofia | 0–0 | D |
Arda Kardzhali – last 6
| 2 Nov | vs Septemvri Sofia | 2–1 | W |
| 27 Oct | vs Levski Sofia | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Oct | @ Spartak Plovdiv | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Oct | @ Ludogorets | 0–5 | L |
| 2 Oct | @ Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Cherno More Varna | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 27 Feb 2026 | Arda Kardzhali v Spartak Varna | 1–0 |
More First League predictions
Levski Sofia0
CSKA Sofia3
U3.5Under 3.5 goals
74%@1.25
✓
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali?
On our numbers Spartak Varna have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Arda Kardzhali 46%.
How many goals will there be in Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
When is Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali?
Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali (First League) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Spartak.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.