Serie A · Brazil · José Maria de Campos MaiaMirassol vs Atletico-MG prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.35 · bookmaker 1.28
Value bet: Atletico-MG to win @ 3.50 – our chance 36% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +25%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Mirassol 1.4 – 1.2 Atletico-MG expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Mirassol hold the edge on home soil with a 44% chance of winning, against 36% for Atletico-MG.
Mirassol have taken 8 points from their last 6 matches (2W 2D 2L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.0 per game. Atletico-MG have 1 points from their last 6 (0W 1D 5L), averaging 0.5 scored and 1.7 conceded. Mirassol come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.6 goals (1.4 for Mirassol, 1.2 for Atletico-MG). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 60%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 1–0 (10%), 0–1 (9%).
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 74% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.28 is close to our fair price of 1.35. For a bigger price, Atletico-MG to win at 3.50 is our value angle (36% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Mirassol to win | 44% | 2.28 | 2.00 |
| Double chance | Either team to win | 80% | 1.26 | 1.28 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score | 60% | 1.67 | 1.75 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals | 74% | 1.35 | 1.28 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals | 50% | 2.00 | 1.95 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals | 72% | 1.40 | 1.36 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time | 43% | 2.33 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Mirassol / FT Mirassol | 24% | 4.17 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 | 10% | 9.81 | – |
Form
Mirassol – last 6
| 3 Nov | @ Chapecoense-sc | 2–1 | W |
| 31 Oct | @ Corinthians | 0–2 | L |
| 24 Oct | vs Sao Paulo | 1–1 | D |
| 17 Oct | vs Internacional | 2–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | @ Bahia | 0–1 | L |
| 7 Oct | @ RB Bragantino | 1–1 | D |
Atletico-MG – last 6
| 7 Nov | vs Gremio | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Nov | @ Botafogo | 0–1 | L |
| 1 Nov | @ Gremio | 0–2 | L |
| 29 Oct | vs Cruzeiro | 0–1 | L |
| 27 Oct | @ Flamengo | 2–3 | L |
| 21 Oct | @ Atletico Torque | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mirassol and Atletico-MG.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 34 | +42 | 76 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 34 | +39 | 73 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 34 | +7 | 60 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 34 | +13 | 57 |
| 5 |  Atletico Paranaense | 34 | +8 | 54 |
| 6 |  Bahia | 34 | +5 | 53 |
| 7 |  Atletico-MG | 34 | +4 | 50 |
| 8 |  RB Bragantino | 34 | +5 | 47 |
| 9 |  Santos | 34 | +1 | 47 |
| 10 |  Sao Paulo | 34 | 0 | 44 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 34 | -7 | 42 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 34 | -11 | 42 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 33 | -7 | 41 |
| 14 |  Mirassol | 34 | -9 | 40 |
| 15 |  Vitoria | 34 | -16 | 38 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 34 | -4 | 38 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 34 | -6 | 37 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 34 | -9 | 37 |
| 19 |  Remo | 34 | -20 | 29 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 33 | -35 | 21 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Mirassol vs Atletico-MG?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Mirassol vs Atletico-MG?
On our numbers Mirassol have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Atletico-MG 36%.
How many goals will there be in Mirassol vs Atletico-MG?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
When is Mirassol vs Atletico-MG?
Mirassol vs Atletico-MG (Serie A) kicks off on Saturday 14 November 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at José Maria de Campos Maia.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.